Financial firm VanEck believes Bitcoin’s current correction could be approaching its final stages. The firm points to several signs of capitulation already appearing in the market, with 8 of 12 tracked signals reportedly having been triggered. At the same time, long-term holders have reduced their holdings by roughly 356,000 BTC over the past month.
What makes the situation particularly interesting is that Bitcoin has remained relatively stable despite this selling pressure. That resilience could indicate that the market is absorbing the supply and that the worst phase of the downturn may already be behind us. But does this mean investors should start turning bullish on BTC?
Could Bitcoin Be Nearing the End of Its Downtrend?
Bitcoin experienced a significant correction after reaching a record high of approximately $126,080 in October 2025. The decline came amid heightened geopolitical risks and growing uncertainty surrounding the global economy. During periods of uncertainty, investors often move away from speculative assets and toward traditional safe havens such as gold.
🚨 NEW: VanEck says Bitcoin is approaching the end of the correction phase, with 8 of 12 capitulation signals firing and long-term holders shedding 356K $BTC over the past month. pic.twitter.com/F6tAMQcUY9
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) August 19, 2026
Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle may also be influencing the current market. BTC established major peaks in 2017, 2021, and 2025, reinforcing the idea that another corrective phase could follow its latest record.
If the traditional four-year pattern remains relevant, Bitcoin could potentially establish another major peak around 2029. Historically, however, the groundwork for a new bull cycle could begin well before the next record high. A recovery beginning in 2027 would therefore fit within that broader historical framework.
This raises the possibility that the current weakness could represent the later stages of the ongoing bear-market phase rather than the beginning of a much deeper decline.
Inflation Could Become Another Catalyst
Macroeconomic conditions will remain an important factor for Bitcoin. US inflation has been showing signs of moderation, and a continued decline in consumer prices could give the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to lower interest rates if inflation moves sustainably toward its 2% objective.
Lower interest rates can improve the appeal of riskier assets by making liquidity more readily available and reducing the relative attractiveness of cash and fixed-income investments. Under such conditions, Bitcoin and other high-risk assets could benefit from renewed investor demand.
Still, a potential bottom does not guarantee an immediate rally. Bitcoin remains sensitive to monetary policy, liquidity conditions, investor sentiment, and broader economic developments.
For now, VanEck’s observations offer a reason for market participants to watch Bitcoin closely. If selling pressure continues to fade while BTC maintains its price despite distribution from long-term holders, it could strengthen the argument that the current correction is approaching its conclusion.
