Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has dismissed concerns that advances in artificial intelligence could cause Bitcoin to lose more than half of its value within the next two years.
The debate unfolded on X on Monday after AI risk commentator Liron Shapira made a bold prediction about Bitcoin’s future. Shapira argued that there is a 50% chance BTC could fall by more than 50% over a two-year period. Buterin responded by making it clear that his own financial position already reflects the opposite view.
The Theory Behind the AI-Driven Bitcoin Crash
Shapira, known for hosting the Doom Debates podcast focused on AI-related risks, presented his prediction as a potential threat to Bitcoin’s long-term security.
I take the opposite side of that.
My basic reasons are that I am quite optimistic about cybersecurity in the long term and I see the primary problem as being getting the transition, and I expect BTC to handle at least any issues that do not require social consensus well…
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) September 7, 2026
His argument was not primarily based on declining investor demand or market sentiment. Instead, he suggested that increasingly powerful AI systems could eventually undermine the technological security assumptions supporting Bitcoin.
However, Shapira did not identify a specific mechanism through which AI would compromise the network’s cryptographic protections, mining infrastructure, or proof-of-work system. Concerns about AI-powered cyberattacks have nevertheless become increasingly common across the broader technology industry.
With Bitcoin trading around $79,827 at the time of the discussion, a decline of more than 50% would place the cryptocurrency near the $40,000 level.
Buterin Believes Bitcoin Can Adapt
Buterin took a considerably more optimistic view of the situation.
He said that, over the long term, he remains confident in the ability of networks and developers to respond to cybersecurity threats. In his view, the biggest risks may arise during the transition period as new technologies and security challenges emerge.
According to Buterin, Bitcoin should be capable of adapting to threats that can be addressed through technical upgrades rather than requiring broad social or political agreement. Improvements to client software, mining infrastructure, and defenses against network-level attacks could potentially be implemented as the need arises.
He also expressed extremely low confidence in the idea that AI would fundamentally break Bitcoin’s cryptographic hashes or its proof-of-work security model.
Buterin further suggested that Shapira’s concerns would likely apply to Ethereum as well, since both cryptocurrencies depend on digital infrastructure that could face similar technological threats.
Ethereum has already been examining potential challenges from quantum computing and the eventual need to transition toward post-quantum cryptography. Researchers and developers have increasingly focused on the technical and economic implications of such a migration.
Buterin Says His Portfolio Is Already His Bet
Rather than formally wagering against Shapira’s prediction, Buterin pointed out that his existing crypto holdings already expose him heavily to the outcome.
“I would offer a bet, but given what my holdings are I’m basically taking this bet … with ~90% of my net worth already,” Buterin said in an X post.
The disagreement ultimately comes down to whether rapidly advancing AI can create security threats that cryptocurrency networks cannot adapt to quickly enough.
Shapira now has a two-year window for his prediction to play out. Buterin, meanwhile, has made his position clear—not only through his comments, but through the substantial amount of his own wealth that remains tied to the crypto ecosystem.
